There is a reason for that.
I have visited Kyiv several times during this war. Every visit reminds me of two things.
Russia has not changed its goals. It still believes that it can change borders by force. It still seeks to decide the future of its neighbours, divide Europe and spread discord around the world.
But Ukraine has shown that Russia can be stopped.
Ukraine has changed the way wars are fought. It has learned to adapt fast, use new technology and turn battlefield experience into new capabilities.
“Kyiv in three days?” Ukraine’s answer has been clear: never.
Winning means making sure Russia fails.
Ukraine made the brave decision to fight.
Our job is to help them win. Estonia spends at least 0.25% of its GDP each year on military aid to Ukraine. Russia does not get to decide Ukraine’s future. And it does not get to decide Europe’s security order.
Ukraine will make its own choices. And we will make ours.
We must have the will and resources to defend those choices.
This is what Estonia is working on. Let me make three points.
First, building the defence we need to win.
We are among NATO’s top defence spenders. Over the next ten years, we will invest 26 billion euros in defence. Around half of this will go to weapons and military capabilities.
We are growing our local defence industry.
With public investment support, we are speeding up the production of ammunition, explosives and short-range air-defence missiles.
The turnover of Estonia’s defence sector has increased by an average of 44% a year over the past three years. Our aim is to reach 2 billion euros a year by 2030.
The Estonian Defence Week around this conference shows how far we have come.
Defence is not only about weapons.
We also protect our critical infrastructure, strengthen comprehensive defence and make sure our ports, roads and railways can support our defence.
Lately, we have heard a lot of vague messages about the security situation of our region.
I can assure you there is no reason for panic.
We are informed and we take all possible threats seriously.
When we see a threat, we will say so clearly.
Second, building a Europe and alliances ready to win.
Peace depends on unity and strength. That is what makes deterrence work.
Estonia has long said that Europe must do more for its own defence.
We have led by example. Our core defence spending now stands above 5% of GDP.
Faced with the existential Russian threat, our allies have also stepped up.
Defence spending by NATO allies other than the United States is rising fast. By 2030, it is expected to be higher than US defence spending.
NATO stepped up when critical undersea infrastructure was damaged in the Baltic Sea.
Allied fighter jets have responded fast to violations of our airspace. One shot down a drone over Estonia only recently.
UK, French and US forces are contributing to our security with troops on the ground.
Simply put: NATO works.
The European Union has also raised its game and helps us close critical capability gaps.
Estonia works to make sure the next EU budget matches our security challenges.
Europe now provides most of the support for Ukraine.
Europe’s defence industry has changed gear. Ammunition production has increased sharply since 2022.
But we need more ammunition and more weapons.
We also need drones, air defence, electronic warfare and technologies that may not even exist today.
We need to learn faster. Produce faster. Scale faster.
And we need to do this for less money.
Which brings me to my final point.
Winning the wars of the future.
Ukraine has taught us that a smaller country can defend itself against a much larger enemy. It is possible through innovation and adaptation.
The speed of change, especially in drone warfare, is remarkable.
New solutions appear in weeks and months.
Ukraine has built a direct link between the frontline and production.
It means identifying new needs, collecting data, developing and testing rapidly, and then scaling and implementing quickly.
This knowledge is vital for Europe and for our security.
Learning from Ukraine is a matter of urgency.
Russia and its allies may be slower, but they are learning too.
New drones are being developed to continue spreading terror at night in Kyiv.
Russia’s lessons are also being taken up by Iran, spreading destruction in the Middle East and damaging global energy security.
The free world has some of the most advanced weapon systems in the world.
We cannot spend millions every time Russia spends thousands.
We must work more with Ukraine on defence production.
I took a step in that direction by signing a drone agreement with President Zelenskyy at NATO Summit in Ankara.
The agreement is not only about drones. We will share knowledge, develop technology and produce together.
Now we must make it work in practice. And this is not only a question of production.
It is much more a question of adopting the Ukrainian mindset and approach to defence.
Can we learn and innovate as fast as Ukraine?
Can we test, scale and produce faster?
Can we lower the costs?
Can our defence organisation and industry move at the speed of Ukraine?
We have to - if we want to win.
Thank you.
